tv Dateline London BBC News September 25, 2017 3:30am-4:01am BST
as german chancellor, after parliamentary elections, but her party's support dropped dramatically. the right—wing alternative for germany will win seats in the federal parliament for the first time. the centre—left social democrats had their worst result since 1933. the row between president trump and some high—profile sportsmen and women has grown. more than 100 american footballers protested during the playing of the national anthem at games on sunday. what began last year as a protest against racism escalated after the president's criticism. the regional government of iraqi kurdistan is going ahead with a referendum on independence later on monday, despite international opposition. the move has been fiercely opposed by the iraqi government. turkey and iran have warned the vote could bring chaos to the region. now on bbc news, dateline london. hello, and welcome
to dateline london. i'm jane hill. this week we discuss theresa may's speech in florence and its impact on the brexit negotiations, we look at the prospects for this weekend's german elections, and we assess what, if anything, was achieved at the un general assembly in new york. my guests are: janet daley, the columnist with the sunday telegraph, the italian broadcaster and film—maker annalisa piras, stryker mcguire of bloomberg markets, and thomas kielinger of germany's die welt. he is an author as well. a warm welcome to all of you. britain's prime minister theresa may made a key speech in florence this week, setting out more details of the british government's plans and desires for the brexit negotiations, including talk of a two—year transition period, after the leaving date
of march 2019. theresa may waits now to see whether her speech is sufficient to end the stalemate in brussels and enable the talks to move to stage two — discussing future relations with the eu and a trade deal. janet, let's start with you. were you impressed by the speech in florence there? i was impressed by the speech. it was a miracle of the diplomatic and political rhetoric. i am not trying to be sarcastic. it was phenomenal as a speech in that not only did you manage to heal whatever red stemming have been in her cabinet and party, but she wrong—footed what you might call the anti—diplomacy of the eu. the really quite obnoxious rhetoric that has come at brussels and the eu commission, being the graciousness of it and the generosity of it, the warmth of its... it makes it difficult for the michel barniers etc to come back with their usual sort of riposte. he was there already even three hours after her speech.
but it was short on detail. what the eu means by, "we want more detail," is "we want more money." what british politicians and the public want by more detail, is what is this really mean? we still don't really know. the most critical issues for people who voted leave and the brexit camp within her own party, the jurisdiction of the whole european court ofjustice, critical, taking back our own law and control of our own borders, that was critical to the leave vote. she made gestures in both of those directions and said the european court ofjustice, those rulings will no longer have force and jurisdiction in britain. but we will take into account their views. whatever that means. and she also said, after we leave, there will be admissions for eu citizens coming to britain but they will have to register during the two—year implementation period. it is still pretty unclear
and the eu will obviously hold out on the serious negotiation until they get more cash on the table. it is ridiculous, i'm sorry. that they really have to challenge each other... you are alone in that i'm afraid, in this country. not entirely. no, analisa first. the problem is not money, but where britain wants to go. you admitted in passing that there were no details in may's speech. the problem is, what the eu wants is to know where is your destination, and until you know where you are going, there is not going to be much progress, because you need to be able to say, do you want a norway deal or a canada deal? she said, though... canada could work. she ruled out canada. that is borisjohnson, no...
he is the foreign ministers and there is obviously a problem there. he agreed to her speech and supports her speech. now the idea an off—the—shelf deal is out of the picture. but talking about the definition of your destination, that is precisely what you don't do when you are going into negotiations. the whole point of negotiation, which is a french word, after all, is that you bargain and parle and you give a bit and take a bit. give concessions to set out a... it is a trap to say, tell us exactly what you want, the end picture to be like, now... but you need to know the object of the negotiations. we know that. if you don't know what brexit you want to have, how can you negotiate if you are not clear on what you want? annalisa, do you take nothing from janet's point of the tone, the conciliatory tone saying, we are ready for stage two and ready to sit down around the table and discuss this? it was very good and you could say
that she went from i want my cake and eat it towards eating a little bit of humble pie, because she has admitted that there will be the need to honour the contractual obligation of britain towards the eu. so she admitted a lot of things that are good steps forward. so does that move the process on, then? yes, but i feel that what is not really spelt out clearly in britain is that they need to say what you want. that has been there all along the position of the european union negotiators — that you have to accept that you have obligations, and that we are going forward on that front, but still what is it that britain wants in the end? what is it that she imagined? that is not clear. it is a question of tone, and, janet, you compared it to what michel barnier has been saying and juncker. what about what david davis and liam fox have been saying? there is a fundamental problem
with the negotiations, giving the eu the upper hand, and that is that this is an incredibly weak government. it does not change... her speech does not change the fact that it is so divided, the idea that they are going to get through years is beginning to seem rather remote. the thing is, article 50 having been triggered, then, by law, as it stands, we do leave at that point at the end of 2019. whoever is the prime minister? yes... right. but it is a question of whether what happens after that... this period of transition, what she calls implementation, has always been agreed behind the scenes and everybody has accepted that will be necessary because it is practically impossible, practically impossible to replace all of the mechanisms and processes of the eu presently provided by the eu in the space that is available.
simply too much work any practical sense, hence the two years. the problem is we are so entangled in terms of process and mechanism and manpower. we don't have the border staff to do the checks necessary. scion of the two—year implementation period, which could be made longer... i doubt it. didn't theresa may say specifically it is time limited. it would be political unexpected if it was accepted. might be another government... the main point that needs to be settled now after she admitted having to honour britain's commitments under the full 43 years of belonging, that the money is going to be much more than £20 billion talked about, because £10 billion is what you pay if you want to continue to be a member of the eu for more years, but what about the rest of the commitment and the rest of the promises that you pay part
into your pension pot, into regional developments? it will be rather difficult... it will be a long haggle. unfortunately, it is such it difficult and important issue about the future of the country. that it should be stopped in its tracks because of a haggle over money, it is unavoidable and must be settled. but we have to get over this point. don't they negotiators have to sit down and say, we have to deal with this? we must start talking about the trade deal. the amount of money could be affected by what our conditions will be in trade. if we discover we have a more favourable trade deal we might be more generous about the money. if we must agree the money before we start talking about the trade deal... this is why i don't put too much store by the sweet of this speech and the warm rhetoric. it does not lead to an immediate outbreak of affection between britain and europe. it just wrong—foots the people of the eu. it does. everybody knows the nitty—gritty that is important is predominantly
going to be solved... predominately britain will continue to be a european country and we have known that, but it is a problem that needs to be solved. the destiny, annalisa... you won't get an answer from britain for a long time. you cannot define what your destiny is going to be. you're going to be out, period, but how that is going to be managed is a different kettle of fish. i don't think you will be able to give anyone in europe or at your own public or own cabinet an answer to the final destiny. this is the sort of... but that is a key point. that is a key point, because unless you understand what is pragmatically possible, then you cannot really decide if you're going to go for it, so the fact that you can end up having an off the cliff the situation where trade becomes affected in a way that damages things so much, that must be discussed now. talks in theory begin or continue resume next week. that kicks off again on monday.
meanwhile, this weekend... people in germany go to the polls this weekend in the general election. angela merkel‘s centre—right cdu and martin schulz of the centre—left social democrats, have been appealing for voters in recent weeks to shun the right—wing nationalist party afd, alternative for germany, which looks like to get into the bundestag for the first time. thomas, first of all, is mrs merkel going to get a fourth term? it is striking because in the last weeks i have read articles that say the german election is boring, but when you hear that, my goodness, it is not. we could be seeing a real seismic change here. perhaps to start with angela merkel. will she be headed for a fourth term, do we take it as read? that is a given. she will win. a boring campaign in the sense of answering the question of who will be the next chancellor, all along, it will be hurt, no alternative. the reason is that the spd, the likely main content for office, has been in government with her.
they are in the same boat, so how can any fashion a strong adversarial campaign when you have been an incumbent practically? she a party that was in government, so happily suddenly strike afiery campaign? the real campaign starts on sunday evening, and that is about who is going to be in coalition with angela merkel. yes. that will be the spectacle to watch, and it will be a brutal, long drawn—out wrangling, and might continue until christmas, and germany is not trying to be governed by anyone except their professional teachers and tax collectors... the same in holland, or belgium... for ages. the alternative is of course an important thorn in the flesh of the establishment, because this alternative for germany party reflect the deep unease settled on the german soul after the experiment with 1 million migrants suddenly thrust upon indigenous culture... two or three years ago when it was a welcoming atmosphere for a time. that has changed... people are worried about what the leader will do to the cohesion of society. there is likely to be a peaceful
and relaxed at home... they do not feel relaxed about the sudden influx of such an alien element in their society, and that might spell problems for angela merkel. problems for angela merkel. do you think that the centre of gravity of the government will move because of that? i mean, will it have to move to the right? it is hard to predict, but the main thing is there will be a constant voice of dissent that will object to the integration, evermore, because we continue to have arrivals and so forth. that is the unanswered question about how eventually it will change the composition of the political climate. because they have had a voice at a more local level, but your point is this is the first time that they will be actually in government...
first time in government and this will be angela merkel‘s fourth term, and previously, of course, there was another one with fourth terms who became a cropper in the fourth term. sooner or later we will see a tendency to move in a new direction, goodness knows where, because they sense in germany is we don't want to be leaders in germany... di we want to be leaders? we want to stop the world and go off more likely than being leaders. seeming to drive and dominate europe... the international climate, our neighbours, everywhere, international neighbours at the moment are turbulent, the untrustworthy american president... there has been significant change. i heard a lot of talks about the kind of historic shift to more self—confidence, and namely on defence and security, because of this turbulence around europe, russia, the east, turkey, felt very strongly as a menace near germany.
and because of the turkish migrants... but also the influx of migrants from the south, problems in africa, sub—saharan africa and so on. but also there are significant talks about the eurozone reform, so macron is expected to propose very radical reforms just two days after the election, and that could mean an extraordinary change of course for the entire european union. so there are very key moments... this could be interesting and striking. it rather cuts across thejuncker plan for a sort of bird eu, which is interesting. more centralisation, you know..., army, physical union... no majority in germany wants to go for a physical union,
and interesting you should mention macron. macron is still... the jury is out on whether he will succeed with his reforms to france. remember what happened under a francois hollande, when he tried to introduce modest changes and virtually had a civil war his plate. whether macron will succeed in changing the french inbred sort of sense of, you know,... entitlement. entitlement is the word. you don't know. some might say work life balance but call it what you will. for that to be the main ally for angela merkel in europe will not be enough. she needs to work out whether, in some fashion or another, i don't see how she can help britain with the brexit problem, but she does not want to lose britain under her watch, on her watch. that britain should drift away and so forth... britain has been an important partner in terms of free trade, and democratic culture and what have you, and then suddenly she is left
with, what, france, spain, southern european countries, or problematic countries... what has been mooted now is contrary to what janet says about a european superstate of juncker, a much more flexible europe that would see france and germany being a kind of avant—garde of more integration, and that would create a parallel kind of cooperation on which, of course, britain would be on the side. but the idea is to be much more nimble and fast in moving forward on the things that you need to move forward on, and quickly because it is a matter of survival. yes. the eurozone and defence and security, those are the areas likely to see a strong acceleration. your point about her village is interesting because this rippling your point about turbulence
is interesting because this rippling way back now... if you look at germany may be rethinking its defence posture, and so on and so forth, because of regional turbulence, look at japan. you have two great losers in world war ii, who have been basically, sort of, neutered in military terms since then, now, because of what is happening in their own regions, having to kind of seriously think about, where do we go from here? we are also witnessing the biggest arms races since the end of the cold war. the strategic environment is changing very fast and quickly. things are going to have to adapt... but if macron has a multispeed europe in might, brussels has always fought against that.
he added that there would be simultaneous but differing paths. it changed a long time ago. let's see what the german voters decide at this weekend. thank you on that one. the 193 members of the united nations met for the general assembly in new york this week. there was talk from britain's prime minister of withholding part of the budget if the un doesn't reform. president trump used bellicose language about north korea, in a speech listened to in silence. were any conclusions reached around migration, climate change, myanmar, iran? 0ne senior diplomat told a british newspaper it was the most emotionally exhausting general assembly they could remember. stryker, was anything achieved? how was it for you? it may have been emotionally exhausting but i don't really see that anything came out of it. not anything except for bad things. first of all, on the issue of reforming the united nations, this has come up before and will come up again, and, you know, he would have thought given what trump has said in recent years about the united nations that if he entered the building it would only be in order to bring the whole place down, which he didn't do.
he was rather conciliatory. when he talked to the general assembly? but he was... seriously, about the un, he said some nice things. about the institution. in florence, a little bit, you know... he is basically recognising the importance of the un and says, but you are not doing yourjob. i don't think that this is going to change any time soon, but what came out of it was some incredible language. and so what we have, he continued, of course, to take on the kim jong—un, aka rocket man, his favourite phrase, who is now in the last 2a hours having become little rocket man. so kim jong—un, of course, responds, and this is not going towards a good place. this is not going well. and iran, he tried to... he took on iran, saw iran calmly
fired off a missile, a ballistic missile not a nuclear missile or anything, but they fired off... this is not good. this is not productive. i guess the problem is that we live in the era of twitter. sooner had to translate a message that was meant for his twitter fans. and what is the real diplomacy behind the scenes? going beyond the rocket man pop music rhetoric meant for fox news and twitter's audience, there was quite a significant advancement on a more kind of solid diplomatic ground work, and the fact that he recognised that the united nations is needed... for protection. you mean in relation to north korea? in relation to north korea.
there were conciliatory noises towards russia and china for having agreed to offer sanctions on north korea. there were signs that trump is seeking the help of russia and china and they are helping. there is a kind of need also for us journalists to start dissecting the kind of fake news big rhetoric environment to what actually happens in diplomacy. diplomacy happens behind closed doors. but the policy in america... he is the commander in chief, and although there are signs that his defence people and the pentagon people are desperate to put him in a cage and lock him in a cupboard, that does not make a difference to the constitutional role he has. he did notjust make those insults on twitter but in the general assembly. he talked anyway we are used to hearing tinpot dictators properly goes to the un general assembly, that is very serious. it is not a case of ignoring him
and you hope the rest of the world willjust ignore him as a kind of noisy somebody sitting in the back room somewhere, locked in the attic, but in fact they cannot ignore him. all they have to do is find it convenient politically to decide they're going to take him seriously, if north korea or iran decide they will take him seriously, taken at his word, and boom, you know, there's a serious consequences. butterfly reflected around this table before that the general to advise him their policy towards north korea appears to be very different. they consistently say the military solution is not a solution. but the contradictory messages coming out of washington, that is very disorientating. that is very... it is a volatile situation. one cannot be complacent about this and say, well, the generals will sort it out. things are going on behind the scenes. this man is the come under in chief of the united states. we don't know about kim jong—un...
during the length of trump, the like the length of time... an uncertain world. the language we heard is a bit of comic relief in the great drama with these two yelling at each other, but behind it is the unsettled question of what is the destiny of america? under this current president as long as we don't have a resolution to this enigma, reforming anyone, let alone the un, is far of the table. he was implying that without reform america would start pulling away. pulling away its cash contributions, the main supporter of the un. one of the blusters... you can be taking him seriously... there are signs that the new secretary—general again is doing a lot of work that doesn't filter into the newspapers to actually change things. what is he trying to change in your opinion? what are the reforms? theresa may talked about needing to be more nimble as an organisation...
more transparent... this organisation, 193 voices of countries in the world. have you ever tried to talk with 193 people and tried to be nimble? of course it is difficult, but i think what has been tackled is the issue of bureaucracy, the slow process, the role of blue and white elements, the role of peacemaking and peacekeeping. i think there are signs that the secretary—general is another secretary general income parents into ban ki—moon, dynamic organisation. he could be the man who... could be the man who beheaded animated nimble? there is a shared awareness ever were in the world that we have never need the un more than today. there is an awareness that we need to make a work in this volatile situation. if it provides a steam valve for lunatics to shoot their mouths
off, if it gives a public platform for people saying inane things that could exacerbate situations and make it worse. they have to be very careful, i think, about assuming that because people are talking it will help... sometimes what people are saying, and insulting each other and causing offence, it could actually inflame the situation. all right. thank you to all of you. plenty to discuss another time. that's all we have time for this week. do join us again next week, same time same place. but for now, thank you for watching and goodbye. hi there.
we've got a weather front trying to push east today, but as it does so, it will bump into high pressure from scandinavia and europe. it means the front will be we slow—moving. cloudy start to england and scotland, patchy rain around in the morning. for northern ireland, fog may greet you. it could be dense and slow to clear. through the afternoon, the weather front weakening. much of the rain dying away. starting to see some holes in the cloud for east anglia and south—east england. weather brightening up. the best of the sunshine across western uk and northern ireland once we lose that early—morning fog which could take a little while. on tuesday, the weather front straight across the country across scotland, england and wales. weak and not much rain left on it. increasing amounts of sunshine coming through.
warm for the time of the year, temperatures between 16—21 celsius. and that's your weather. welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. my name is duncan golestani. our top stories: it looks like a fourth term in office for angela merkel, but her party is punished by german voters. translation: let's not beat about the bush. of course we'd hoped for a better result. but let's not forget we've just had a very challenging four years. for the first time, the right—wing nationalist afd wins seats in parliament. it becomes germany's third party. defying donald trump, american football players kneel in protest against racism and police violence. in a few hours kurds in iraq will vote on independence, despite warnings of regional chaos. also in the programme: a warning from bali this volcano could be